Climate Change Trends
Tropical Storm Irene, Poughkeepsie, New York
Over the next several decades, our changing climate will impact our region in many ways, including transportation. These changes will require adjustments to how we build, maintain, and repair our infrastructure. To help us understand these changes and their future implications for our transportation system, we sought to answer two basic questions:
- What are the trends in the region’s climate and what do we expect in the future?
- What are the likely impacts of climate change to our transportation infrastructure?
We completed a Transportation Resilience Improvement Plan in 2024 – Resilient Ways Forward – that reviewed available data to understand how changes in our climate could impact our transportation system. Below is a summary of key trends, their implications, and ideas to address them from that plan.
Trend 1. Rising temperatures
Over the past 25 years, average annual temperatures in our region have increased by three degrees. And very high temperatures will likely occur with greater frequency. From 1981-2010, Dutchess County saw an average of eight days per year where the high temperature reached 90°F or above. This could increase to 27-35 days per year by 2050.
Rising temperatures will affect infrastructure and people in varying ways. For roads and bridges, higher temperatures add stress to asphalt, concrete, and structural joints – reducing their life spans and increasing maintenance costs. For people, higher temperatures add to health risks and increase discomfort, especially for those who walk, bike, and use transit. These risks will be compounded in more developed areas, where buildings, roads, and other infrastructure absorb heat and amplify temperatures (i.e., the heat island effect).
Poughkeepsie Average Temperature, 1970-2021
Poughkeepsie Annual 90+ Degree Days, 1970-2021
Source: National Weather Service
Trend 2. More flooding events
Of all the climate hazards, increased flooding will likely have the greatest impact on our transportation system. We expect precipitation to become more variable each year, with some years receiving much more rain than others. On average, annual precipitation in Dutchess County is projected to increase by 1-2 inches by 2050, with the greatest increases in the winter and spring. Heavy rainfall events are expected to become more frequent and intense, leading to flooding.
Areas along the Hudson River could also experience greater storm surge during coastal storms. Under one scenario, sea levels at the Battery in New York City (the closest tide gauge to Dutchess County) are projected to rise approximately 1.7 feet by 2050.
No matter the cause, flooding damages roads, bridges, and rail lines, causing closures, delays, and safety risks for travelers. About 70 bridges and 150 miles of our roads are in a FEMA flood zone, which means they have a chance of flooding each year. And more than half of our railroad mileage is vulnerable to flooding – particularly the Hudson Line along the Hudson River. Addressing these vulnerabilities will be essential to creating a more resilient transportation system.
Bridges in Flood Zones
| Road Type | Total | % |
|---|---|---|
| Interstate | 10 | 4% |
| US | 12 | 5% |
| State | 47 | 21% |
| County | 71 | 32% |
| Local | 75 | 33% |
| Private/Internal | 9 | 4% |
| Total | 224 | 100% |
Does not include the three Hudson River bridges.
Roads in Flood Zones
| Road Type | Number of Flood Zone Crossings | Miles in Flood Zone* |
|---|---|---|
| Interstate | 30 | 2.8 |
| US | 102 | 5.7 |
| State | 302 | 22.3 |
| County | 277 | 17.3 |
| Local | 1,068 | 70.3 |
| Private/Internal | 424 | 28.5 |
| Total | 2,203 | 146.8 |
*Includes bridge spans totaling 2.9 miles.
Does not include the three Hudson River crossings.
Trend 3. Other extreme weather events
In addition to heat waves and flooding, Dutchess County will likely experience more extreme weather events in the future, including high winds and ice/snow storms. Although Resilient Ways Forward identifies which parts of our transportation system are most vulnerable to likely climate hazards, the unpredicatability of extreme weather events makes them difficult to fully address.
Dutchess County has experienced multiple high wind events, including Tropical Storm Irene in 2011 and Isaias in 2020. We will likely experience more of these as the intensity of hurricanes, tropical storms, and severe thunderstorms increase. High winds can lead to speed or travel restrictions, road closures from fallen trees and utility poles, and damage to supporting infrastructure like traffic signals and road signs.
Winters in the Northeast have warmed three times faster than summers, leading to later snowfall and earlier snowmelt. While we will likely experience fewer days below freezing, when winter storms do occur, they are likely to be more severe and include more snowfall. Winter storms can cause dangerous driving conditions, resulting in road closures, travel restrictions, and increased maintenance costs. Frequent snow melting and freezing can also cause cracking and buckling in roads.
IMPACT ON MIGRATION
Extreme weather may change migration and settlement patterns, as people move to where they feel safer.
Our Role
While the changing climate is a global challenge, we can address this critical issue by collecting information, educating decision makers, and advocating for policies and projects that address the causes and effects of climate change:
- Advocate for priority resilience projects identified in Resilient Ways Forward.
- Support key stakeholders in enacting policy-based measures suggested in Resilient Ways Forward.
- Support municipalities’ efforts to implement climate-sensitive land use regulations.
- Promote smart land use policies to help reduce vehicle travel and congestion, and support transit, walking, and bicycling.
- Encourage use of the Resilient Ways Forward Adaptation Toolkit.
- Continue to collaborate and coordinate with other departments and agencies.
- Encourage the use of public transit, park-and-rides, and other alternatives to reduce single occupancy vehicle travel.
- Support technological innovations that can reduce emissions, including electric vehicles and cashless tolling.
- Incorporate climate considerations into road and bridge projects:
- Consider climate risks in bridge and culvert replacements.
- Monitor roadsides for proper ditching, tree-trimming, and erosion control.
- Encourage communities to prohibit dead-end roads in flood-prone areas and evaluate possible connections for existing roads without multiple access points.
SOME GOOD NEWS
Overall, Dutchess County’s air quality has improved over the last few decades. Our ozone levels (based on the EPA calculation of the 4th highest 8-hour average during a year) dropped by nearly half from 2002-2020. We reached a record low in 2020, but levels have since increased, due in part to higher than average temperatures, smoke from Canadian wildfires, and other factors.