Demographic Trends
Franklin Ave, Millbrook, New York
A good transportation system allows us to live our lives, earn a living, and pursue our interests. Demographic trends directly affect transportation, both in terms of demand and the types of transportation services people need. To better understand what might happen to this demand and what transportation services might be needed in the future, we sought to answer two basic questions:
- What are the trends in the county’s population, including characteristics such as age, race/ethnicity, and income?
- Where in the county do we expect population to grow, decline, or stay the same?
We reviewed data from a variety of sources to learn how our population may change by 2050. Below is a summary of those key trends, their implications, and ideas on how we might address them.
The pandemic affected our society in many ways, including transportation. Some people moved to suburban and rural areas (including Dutchess County), more people worked from home, and many people grew accustomed to home delivery services. Some changes stuck, and some didn’t — but we’ll keep watching these and other changes to assess their impacts on our transportation system.
Trend 1. Very slow population growth
We can no longer assume that the population growth rates seen in past decades will continue. Based on available estimates, we expect the county’s population to grow from about 300,000 to about 315,000 people through 2050—a seven percent increase from 2020. This slow growth stands in contrast to earlier periods of our history: for the first time since 1890, the 2020 Census showed a decline in the county’s total population from the previous decade. The reasons for this can be traced to three basic components of population change: births, which are lower, deaths, which are higher, and migration, which is flat (and may decline) at best (and not enough to offset natural decline).
Slow to no population growth will affect a range of issues, including travel demand. Without pressure to expand due to population growth, maintaining and managing existing transportation infrastructure and systems will be more important than expansion. We can focus our attention on repairs and making the transportation system as efficient as possible. In some cases, we may be able to redesign transportation facilities to reflect reduced demand or shifting travel needs.
Dutchess County Population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Population Estimates (2020-2045)
Source: Upper Bound-New York Metropolitan Transportation Council (NYMTC), Middle Bound – Dutchess County Transportation Council (DCTC), and Lower Bound - Cornell Program on Applied Demographics (CPAD).
One sign of our county’s population decline is reflected in public school enrollment: the number of K-12 students fell countywide by over 8,800 or 20% from 2010-2023.
Trend 2. Uneven population changes across the county
We expect the county’s population to grow very slowly through 2050, but there will be variation at the local level. The 2020 Census showed that many of our municipalities lost residents or grew very little during the previous decade, while several of the county’s urban and suburban communities – in particular East Fishkill, Fishkill, Poughkeepsie (City and Town), Wappinger, and Wappingers Falls – saw noticeable population gains. Though these six municipalities collectively grew by almost 4,000 residents, it was not enough to offset losses elsewhere, especially in rural areas such as the Towns of Amenia and Red Hook.
Changes in local population, especially population density, affect the demand for and viability of transportation services such as transit and ridesharing, and transportation facilities such as sidewalks and trails. We know that our cities, villages, and town centers benefit from multi-layered transportation systems. Higher-density neighborhoods have the potential to support new transit services and new or improved walking and cycling facilities. Lower-density areas can benefit from technologies such as on-demand transportation, which could make rural communities more attractive to residents aging in place and prospective newcomers.
Population for Dutchess County Municipalities (2010-2020)
| 2010 | 2020 | Change | % Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amenia | 4,436 | 3,769 | -667 | -15.0% |
| Beacon* | 14,599 | 13,769 | -830 | -5.7% |
| Beekman | 14,621 | 14,172 | -449 | -3.1% |
| Clinton | 4,312 | 4,037 | -275 | -6.4% |
| Dover | 8,699 | 8,415 | -284 | -3.3% |
| East Fishkill | 29,029 | 29,707 | 678 | 2.3% |
| Fishkill Town* | 20,878 | 22,060 | 1,182 | 5.7% |
| Fishkill Village | 2,171 | 2,166 | -5 | -0.2% |
| Hyde Park | 21,571 | 21,021 | -550 | -2.5% |
| LaGrange | 15,730 | 15,975 | 245 | 1.6% |
| Milan | 2,370 | 2,245 | -125 | -5.3% |
| Millbrook | 1,452 | 1,455 | 3 | 0.2% |
| Millerton | 958 | 903 | -55 | -5.7% |
| North East | 2,073 | 2,068 | -5 | -0.5% |
| Pawling Town | 6,116 | 6,017 | -99 | -1.6% |
| Pawling Village | 2,347 | 1,995 | -352 | -15.0% |
| Pine Plains | 2,473 | 2,218 | -255 | -10.3% |
| Pleasant Valley | 9,672 | 9,799 | 127 | 1.3% |
| Poughkeepsie City | 31,045 | 31,577 | 532 | 1.7% |
| Poughkeepsie Town | 44,090 | 44,544 | 454 | 1.0% |
| Red Hook Town* | 8,240 | 6,966 | -1,274 | -15.5% |
| Red Hook Village | 1,961 | 1,975 | 14 | 0.7% |
| Rhinebeck Town | 4,891 | 4,899 | 8 | 0.2% |
| Rhinebeck Village | 2,657 | 2,657 | 40 | 1.5% |
| Stanford | 3,823 | 3,682 | -141 | -3.7% |
| Union Vale | 4,877 | 4,558 | -319 | -6.5% |
| Wappinger | 22,468 | 23,040 | 572 | 2.5% |
| Wappingers Falls | 5,522 | 6,103 | 581 | 10.5% |
| Washington | 3,289 | 3,067 | -222 | -6.7% |
| Total Population | 297,488 | 295,911 | -1,577 | -0.5% |
*Data subject to change based on Census Count Question Resolution (CQR) results.
Trend 3. More older residents and fewer younger residents
Our county is graying: older adults will continue to make up a larger share of our population and younger people a smaller share. In coming years, we could have as many older adults (65+) as young people (under 18), a first in our county’s history. Estimates for Dutchess County show that the number of people aged 65 and over will increase by almost 36 percent by 2040, while those 17 and under will decrease by about nine percent. We can see this trend reflected in our median age, which was 37 in 2000, 40 in 2010, and is estimated at 42 in 2023.
The graying of our population will affect how our transportation system is used and what services are needed. It will likely mean less travel on our roads, since older residents tend to make fewer trips and drive fewer miles than other age groups. At the same time, younger people are waiting longer to obtain driver’s licenses and appear less inclined to drive than previous generations. Travel demand may also decline as fewer people age into the labor force, and more of those who can, work remote or hybrid schedules.
The aging population will require us to consider how we design our streets, sidewalks, and transit systems so that they are accessible for all ages. Expanding travel options will also be important. Older adults tend to rely more on others for transportation, such as getting rides with family or friends. We will likely see increased demand for ride-sharing and specialized transit services such as Dial-a-Ride, in addition to regular bus services – and the benefits of such services would not be limited to older adults but could serve many people.
Older adults tend to experience a higher rate of disability than other age groups. In Dutchess County, 44% of those aged 75 and over report having some type of disability.
Young & Elderly Population Estimates for Dutchess County (2020-2040)
| 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | % Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aged 17 & Under | 55,732 | 52,669 | 52,284 | 51,814 | 50,757 | -9% |
| Aged 65 & Over | 52,345 | 63,692 | 70,123 | 72,354 | 71,138 | 36% |
Source: Cornell Program on Applied Demographics (CPAD)
Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled by Age for Dutchess County Residents
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Trend 4. Flat or slowly growing household incomes
We discuss economic issues in our Economic Trends analysis, but for demographics, we focus on household income. Income provides us with choices, not only about where to live and work, but also about how to travel. Higher-income households tend to have more vehicles and are more inclined to travel by car, whereas lower-income households may have limited access to a vehicle and are more likely to travel by bus and by walking and bicycling.
Despite gains in overall salaries and wages, the real income of households in the county has grown slowly over the past decade, primarily due to higher inflation. The proportion of people living below the poverty line continues to average around nine percent, with a similar percentage of households receiving federal food assistance. The Poughkeepsie, Dover, and Pine Plains areas have the highest share of low-income populations in the county, while the City of Poughkeepsie has the highest share of households without a vehicle. We expect these dynamics to continue, and perhaps worsen. Recognizing this, we will need to ensure that low-cost transportation options remain available to everyone, particularly lower-income populations.
What We Heard
“I am fast approaching the time when I will give up driving my own vehicle. The loss of independence is terrifying, as I will then have to depend on others (and taxis) to drive to destinations I now easily drive to myself.”
– Moving Dutchess Forward survey
Trend 5. Increasing racial and ethnic diversity at the county level; uneven at the local level
While we expect our total population to be relatively flat through 2045, it will become increasingly diverse, with growing shares of minority and Hispanic populations. In 2020 the county’s minority population (Black or African American, American Indian, Native Hawaiian, and other races) made up 22 percent of our total population, a sizeable increase from 14 percent in 2010. Census data also shows that the county’s Hispanic population was 14 percent in 2020, compared to 11 percent in 2010. We expect this growth to continue, mirroring national and statewide trends – although immigration policy will affect the pace of change.
Though the 2020 Census shows minority and Hispanic population growth at the county level, it remains uneven at the local level, following historic patterns. For example, more than half of the county’s Black population lives in the City and Town of Poughkeepsie, a share that has been consistent since at least 1980. Similarly, almost 60 percent of the county’s Hispanic population lives in Poughkeepsie (city and town), East Fishkill, Fishkill, Wappinger, and Wappingers Falls.
Given our growing diversity, transportation services will need to be more inclusive of various languages, cultures, and travel patterns. At the local level, concentrations of minority populations in Beacon, Poughkeepsie, and Wappingers Falls will require us to pay close attention to how our transportation decisions affect these areas, and most importantly, to avoid negative impacts to these communities as we progress recommended policies and projects.
Our Role
Based on what we’ve learned about these future demographic trends, our role could include the following:
- Manage and maintain existing infrastructure, including our roads, bridges, transit systems, sidewalks, and trails, while maximizing their safety and efficiency.
- Consider opportunities to reduce or remove unneeded capacity (also known as ‘right-sizing’ our infrastructure). This may include deferred maintenance on some roads or bridges, if there are no negative safety or economic impacts.
- Support and promote transportation options for older adults, in coordination with relevant agencies such as County Public Transit and the County’s Office for the Aging.
- Protect our most vulnerable populations and communities from negative impacts of our transportation decisions.
Whatever changes occur in our county, our challenge will be to find an acceptable balance between competing needs and limited resources.