Economic Trends
iPark84, East Fishkill, New York
Our economy, whether viewed in terms of jobs, workers, or commerce, drives transportation activity in our county. When the economy is not strong, people commute less, make fewer shopping trips, and refrain from leisure travel, while businesses require fewer workers, demand fewer materials, and move fewer products. Assessing economic trends helps us understand how our transportation system might be affected in the future. But this is challenging, as our economy is always in flux and is intricately linked to the economies of the region, including the greater New York City area.
To better understand what might happen with our economy, we sought to answer two main questions:
- How will our labor force (working population) change? Will we have enough workers with the necessary skills to support our economy?
- What are the trends in the county’s economy, in terms of job types, industries, business locations, and wage rates? What do we expect in the future?
We reviewed data from a variety of sources to identify economic trends in Dutchess County. Below is a summary of key trends, their implications, and ideas for how we might address them.
DCC’S WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS
To address the labor shortage, Dutchess Community College is developing a ‘Future of Work Center’ at its Fishkill campus to create degree and credential programs to address employer skill needs. Related efforts include:
- A Mechatronics lab at its Fishkill campus with programs in HVAC, supply chain automation, and electrical technology.
- An Aviation Education Center at the Hudson Valley Regional Airport, which offers pilot, aviation maintenance, and aviation management programs.
- Micro-credential programs focused on the needs of local businesses, including nursing, EMT/Paramedics, bookkeeping, and networking for the cloud.
Trend 1. Aging labor force and slow labor force growth
Forecasts show population growth in Dutchess to be very slow and our residents aging (see These trends point to slow labor force growth and an older labor force. Estimates from NYMTC (the New York City-area MPO) indicate that the county’s labor force will be flat until and grow slightly (by about 3.5%) by 2050.
This could mean that more workers commute into Dutchess to make up a shortfall in local employees, adding traffic on our bridges and key commute routes. For Dutchess-based employers, the shrinking labor pool may require them to work with municipalities to attract and retain young (and older) workers, such as by providing more affordable housing options and developing mixed-use, multi-modal centers.
Trend 2. Continued presence of remote and hybrid work schedules
Working from home has become much more common since before the pandemic (see Travel Trends) and will likely continue to be a trend, at least for some industries and workers. While many employers require some (or all) in-office days, some allow hybrid or fully remote schedules. This is particularly the case for jobs in technology, sales & marketing, finance & accounting, and consulting. Many self-employed people, such as those with small businesses, also work from home.
Remote and hybrid work creates more off-peak trips and short, local trips. This could help reduce peak period traffic, and in some areas, allow for more walking, cycling, and other non-vehicle trips.
Trend 3. More people working multiple and/or part-time jobs
While unemployment in Dutchess County has been low for the past few years (between 2-3 percent since 2022), wages have begun to lose ground with inflation, especially for lower-income households.
Healthcare and private education are our most significant and highest-growth sectors; however, healthcare jobs are also often part-time and low-wage. Our tourism a, but jobs in these industries can have low wages and are often seasonal and/or part-time with few benefits.
Given these trends, we expect many people will still need to work multiple jobs, including part-time and non-traditional hours. This could result in more trips, especially during nights, weekends, and other off-peak times, which will require reliable (and low cost) transportation options. In addition, workers in the tourism and agriculture sectors, and visitors, need reliable transportation options to various, often rural, destinations.
According to Destination Dutchess, tourism in Dutchess County generates more than $750 million in visitor spending (including food and beverage, lodging, retail, transportation, and recreation), employs almost 10 percent of the Dutchess workforce, and contributes more than $90 million in state and local taxes.
Average Weekly Wages in Dutchess County
| Year | Average Weekly Wage |
|---|---|
| 2020 | $1,242 |
| 2021 | $1,321 |
| 2022 | $1,334 |
| 2023 | $1,330 |
| 2024 | $1,402 |
Trend 4. Growth in e-commerce and warehouse & distribution centers
Across the country, e-commerce is growing (as described under Freight Trends), and warehouses and distribution centers have been popping up to serve the increasing demands of online shopping and next-day (or same day) delivery. In the Mid-Hudson Valley, many of these centers have been built in Orange County, but Dutchess has seen several warehouses in the past few years, particularly along the I-84 corridor in East Fishkill and Fishkill.
More delivery traffic between warehouses/distribution centers and homes and businesses increases the wear and tear on our roads, and can pose challenges for our cities, town centers, and villages, which often have limited delivery space.
In addition, warehouse workers often work non-traditional hours for low wages. This presents an opportunity to improve access to these sites, including via public transit.
THE POUGHKEEPSIE-AMAZON EXPRESS
In January 2025, Dutchess County Public Transit started a new bus route between Poughkeepsie and the Amazon and iPark warehouses in East Fishkill. The route includes stops at the Poughkeepsie transit hub and train station, Route 9 in front of the Hannaford plaza in Wappinger, and Walmart in Fishkill, as well as Amazon and three locations around iPark. This new service is a pilot, developed in coordination with employers to try to improve transportation access to these key job centers. As of fall 2025, the two roundtrips (am and pm) have helped more than 53 workers get back and forth to work each day.
Our Role
Based on what we’ve learned about economic trends, our role could include the following:
- Support municipal efforts to develop workforce housing and mixed-use, multi-modal communities to attract and retain young and older workers.
- Work with municipalities to improve walking and cycling infrastructure to encourage local trips by foot and bike.
- Work with transportation providers, Destination Dutchess, and Think!Dutchess to expand options for trips to employment centers (including warehouse and distribution sites) and tourist destinations.
- Work with municipalities as needed to manage traffic and parking, especially for delivery vehicles, in city, town, and village centers.
