Freight Trends
EFCO Products, Poughkeepsie, New York
Freight can sometimes be overlooked in transportation planning, which tends to focus more on moving people than goods – especially in Dutchess County, which has less freight activity than other areas in the region. Yet freight remains a critical component of our transportation system: whether by road, rail, air, or water, freight provides the goods we need for our homes, businesses, and institutions to function. And technological trends will likely change how freight moves in the future. To help us understand these trends, we sought to answer two questions:
- How is freight transported in and through our region?
- How might freight movement change in the future?
We reviewed data from a variety of sources, including our regional freight analysis with Ulster and Orange counties and New York State’s Freight Plan, to learn how freight trends will affect our transportation system. Below is a summary of key trends, their implications, and ideas for how we might address them.
Trend 1. Continued growth in trucking
While freight is changing, trucks will continue to carry most of the freight in and through Dutchess County, and we expect trucking freight volume to continue to grow. According to New York State’s Freight Plan, 69 percent of freight by tonnage (and 76 percent of freight by value) in New York State is currently transported by truck.
The State’s Freight Plan estimates that across New York, truck freight volume will increase by 37 percent by 2050 and truck freight value will increase by 69 percent, resulting in 70 percent of freight volume and 78 percent of freight value being transported by truck. The Plan notes that freight movement on the I-84 corridor is likely to grow even more.
While growth in truck traffic suggests economic vitality, it also stresses our roads and bridges. In addition, it brings local challenges: many of our ‘Main Streets’ are State highways that serve truck traffic. This often raises concerns about safety (especially for people walking or cycling), noise, and quality of life.
It will be critical to balance the needs of truck freight—such as improving travel time reliability on truck routes, maintaining pavement and bridge conditions, and using technology to manage incidents and direct trucks to the best routes—with the needs of our communities.
Truck Volumes on Dutchess County Roads
| Route | Location | Heavy Vehicle % | Average Daily Heavy Vehicle Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| I 84 | Ulster County line to Hudson River | 19% | 9,443 |
| I 84 | Hudson River to West of Route 52 | 18% | 8,791 |
| US 44/NY 55 | Market St to Worrall/Innis Ave | 3% | 1,591 |
| US 9 | Old Hopewell Rd (CR 28) to Route 52 | 4% | 1,524 |
| US 9 | Van Wyck Lake Rd to Putnam County line | 9% | 1,453 |
| US 9 | New Hackensack Rd to Myers Corners Rd (CR 93) | 3% | 1,256 |
| NY 22 | Route 55 to Putnam County line | 6% | 1,237 |
| NY 82 | Just south of Clove Branch Rd (CR 29) | 5% | 1,059 |
Source: Dutchess County Transportation Council (DCTC) (Traffic Data Viewer)
Trend 2. Growth in local on-demand deliveries
According to the NYS Freight Plan, e-commerce’s share of retail trade across the country has grown by 48 percent since 2019. And in New York State, the share of non-store retail trade (a proxy for e-commerce) is forecasted to grow from about 25 percent of retail to more than 62 percent by 2050. While this will affect trucking and aviation, the largest increase will be in local delivery traffic, such as by Amazon, UPS, the postal service, supermarkets, and other retailers.
To address this growth will require us to gather data on local delivery trips and work with communities to plan for delivery and curb space management also work with delivery companies on solutions such as night and weekend deliveries, optimized routing, consolidated deliveries, dedicated hubs for package pick-ups, e-bike delivery, and same-day surcharges.
In New York State, the share of non-store retail trade (a proxy for e-commerce) is forecasted to grow from about 25 percent of retail to more than 62 percent by 2050.
Trend 3. Expansion of air cargo at New York Stewart International Airport
New York Stewart International Airport will continue to serve an increasingly important role in the movement of air cargo in the region. Over the past decade, freight traffic at Stewart Airport has grown substantially, primarily due to shipments by UPS and FedEx. In 2024, Stewart handled almost 26,500 tons of domestic and international freight, down from a high of 31,000 tons in 2021 but increasing compared to other years.
To accommodate this expected growth, we will need to maintain and improve freight connections between Stewart Airport and Dutchess County destinations, including on I-84 and State roads, especially those serving warehouse and distribution sites.
Stewart Airport Freight
Source: Port Authority of New York and New Jersey
Trend 4. Potential for autonomous freight
Freight is likely to be an early adopter of autonomous vehicles (AVs). Indeed, some companies are already developing AV technology for fleets, including driverless trucks and delivery vehicles. AV technology is also being explored for freight trains, cargo ships, and drones. It will be important to monitor these trends and understand best practices.
Freight is an obvious candidate for the introduction of autonomous vehicles. Driverless trucks and delivery vehicles are already being tested on the nation’s roads.
Our Role
- Continue to analyze regional freight patterns with Orange and Ulster counties, building on our regional freight analysis.
- Work with municipalities to reduce the local impacts of truck traffic.
- Monitor pavement and bridge conditions on key truck routes and local streets used for deliveries and prioritize needed maintenance and improvement projects.
- Analyze travel time reliability on key truck routes and recommend potential improvements, including appropriate technologies to better manage incidents and re-route trucks to the best routes.
- Gather and analyze data on local delivery traffic, help municipalities plan for local delivery and curb space, and suggest ways for municipalities to work with delivery companies on solutions to traffic impacts.
- Monitor trends in autonomous freight and understand best practices.
DCTC’S FREIGHT DATA ANALYSIS
To better understand truck patterns on Routes 9 and 9D, we partnered with the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) to see where trucks were coming from and going to. As part of the study, ATRI pulled truck locations from one day in October 2023 and tracked where those trucks traveled over a 7-day period. The results showed that trucks in southern Dutchess traveled as far as Minnesota, Iowa, Texas, and California.