Travel Trends
Beekman Rd, Beekman New York
Knowing how and why people travel is central to helping us shape our transportation system to meet current and future needs. To understand these travel dynamics, we sought to answer two basic questions:
- What are the current trends in our travel behavior (how and why we travel)?
- How do we expect these travel trends to change in the future?
We reviewed data from a variety of sources to learn about the nature of travel in Dutchess County. Below is a summary of those key trends, their implications, and ideas for how we might address them.
Trend 1. Continued dominance of personal vehicles
The personal vehicle will remain the dominant mode of transportation in our county for the foreseeable future. Estimates show that more than 81 percent of all trips in Dutchess County, and more than 77 percent of work commutes, are made by personal vehicle – rates that have remained largely unchanged since at least 1980. And while our population has stayed flat over the past decade, our passenger vehicle inventory grew by almost four percent from 2010 to 2025 (more than 7,500 vehicles). Unless our development patterns change substantially, transit, walking, and bicycling are unlikely to be feasible for many trips, especially outside of our cities, villages, and town centers.
The dominance of personal vehicles will require us to maintain our roads and bridges, while also striving to make them as safe and efficient as possible. Improving the safety and efficiency of our system not only applies to infrastructure, it also applies to the vehicles that use it. Given that most of us will rely on personal vehicles for transportation, it will become increasingly important to expand the use of safer and more energy-efficient vehicles.
However, a transportation system that caters to vehicles can exclude those without access to one, including We must therefore ensure that their transportation needs are not overlooked.
Our county is home to 217,000 licensed drivers and 222,500 passenger vehicles: a ratio of more than one vehicle for every driver.
Registered Vehicles in Dutchess County (2010-2024)
Source: NYS Department of Motor Vehicles
Trend 2. Slightly more people working remotely
Though working from home remains the exception in Dutchess County, it has increased over the past several years: from eight percent of workers in 2019 to an estimated 14 percent in 2023. The pandemic clearly accelerated a shift to working from home for those able to do so, though it appears to have levelled off since its 2021 peak. We expect working from home to continue, as institutions maintain flexible work arrangement and workers settle into remote and hybrid schedules – especially for the quarter of the county’s workforce in office-based jobs. Many workers, including education, construction, retail, and most medical workers do not have that flexibility.
Remote work may ease morning and evening rush hours on major highways and transit systems. We continue to watch long-distance commuting trends, especially among office-based workers. This includes those who normally commute to the New York City area by Metro-North Railroad – shifting work patterns have already reduced the demand for weekday commuter rail services. However, a large share of our workforce will continue to commute, and some will require low-cost transportation options to help offset higher costs of living.
How have Dutchess County's workers commuted to work?
| 2010 | 2015 | 2019 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workers (16 and over) | 137,267 | 136,342 | 147,975 | 146,837 |
| Car-drove alone | 79% | 76% | 75% | 73% |
| Car-carpooled | 8% | 7% | 7% | 5% |
| Public transportation | 4% | 6% | 5% | 5% |
| Walked | 4% | 5% | 3% | 4% |
| Worked at home | 5% | 5% | 8% | 13% |
| Mean travel time to work (minutes) | 30.6 | 31.4 | 33.4 | 32.1 |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS)
Trend 3. People will still travel for many reasons (though less for work)
Factors such as where we live, shop, and learn are just as important as where we work when analyzing the nature of travel. Though commuting is often the focus of transportation research and policy, it represents only 21 percent of trips in Dutchess County. Traveling for family and personal business is the main reason we travel (36 percent of trips), followed by social and recreational activities (28 percent of trips). And as the reasons we travel vary, so do the distances travelled, and time spent traveling. On average, Dutchess residents travel further to work (18 miles) but spend more time traveling for medical care (38 minutes). Trip dynamics also change by mode: people tend to drive alone when commuting but have passengers when driving for recreational or social purposes.
We expect these trends to hold for the foreseeable future, though we may see slightly less commuting due to remote and hybrid work schedules, and fewer shopping trips due to home deliveries. We still don’t know the lasting impact of these societal changes on the county; though, one implication may be less need to add road capacity.
In Dutchess, average vehicle occupancy drops to 1.2 people when commuting, but rises above 2.0 when driving for social or recreational purposes.
How have we used vehicles to travel in Dutchess County (2009 & 2017)
| 2009 | 2017 | % Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return Home | 35% | 35% | 0% |
| To Work | 13% | 18% | 5% |
| School/Daycare/Religious | 5% | 3% | -2% |
| Medical/Dental | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Shopping/Errands | 23% | 19% | -4% |
| Social/Recreational | 10% | 8% | -2% |
| Transport someone | 8% | 8% | 0% |
| Meals | 6% | 7% | 1% |
| Something else | 3% | 1% | -2% |
Source: 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS)
Trend 4. Increasing comfort with on-demand (ride-hailing) transportation services
We expect on-demand transportation services (also called ride-hailing) to maintain their presence in the county and perhaps grow as people become more comfortable with the service model and technology. Uber and Lyft began operating in Dutchess County in 2017 and have become increasingly popular travel options for certain demographics and trip purposes. On-demand transportation is often used by college students and tourists, particularly for entertainment and dining-related trips. However, the services remain concentrated in our more populated areas around Beacon and Poughkeepsie, with extremely limited coverage in rural parts of the county.
The growing acceptance of on-demand services may expand transportation options for older residents, including those who choose to age in place, and others with limited vehicle access (either by choice or necessity). Ride-hailing could increase traffic in our denser downtowns, but most of these trips would likely occur outside of peak commute hours. Detailed data on ride-hailing is difficult to obtain, but we’ll try to monitor its impact on local travel behavior.
Trend 5. Modest growth in Vehicle Miles Traveled
Vehicle-based travel in Dutchess County will grow more slowly than previously estimated. Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), a standard measure of overall vehicle use, represents the sum of miles driven by all vehicles in an area. Our previous transportation plan estimated that VMT in Dutchess would grow by 17 percent from 2020-2045. However, revised projections for 2025 show growth slowing to about six percent through 2050, primarily due to lower population and employment estimates. And VMT may even decline in coming years due to post-pandemic demographic and travel trends: NYSDOT estimated a two percent decrease in actual VMT for Dutchess County from 2019-2023, and excluding 2020, annual VMT still remains lower than pre-pandemic levels.
Other influences on future travel behavior include changes in land use patterns and the economy, and the growth of on-demand deliveries, transportation, and acceptance of on-demand services. Whatever scale these changes take, our estimates of future VMT reinforce the idea that we will not need to add highway capacity (i.e., build new roads) but instead focus on making the existing system as safe and efficient as possible. It also presents us with an opportunity to focus on maintaining our roads and bridges, while benefitting from lower emissions and improved air quality.
Past & Future Estimated Vehicle Miles Traveled in Dutchess County (2011-2050)
Source: Dutchess County Transportation Council (DCTC)
Our Role
Based on what we’ve learned about future travel trends, our role could include the following:
- Promote and expand transportation choices for those without access to a vehicle, focusing on public transit, walking and bicycling opportunities, and ridesharing services.
- Work with ride-hailing companies to help reach older adults, young adults, and others with limited vehicle access, including those living in rural parts of the county.
- Monitor the impacts of remote work on our system, and in coordination with agencies, adjust capacity as needed.
- Promote smart land use policies to help reduce vehicle travel and support transit, walking, and bicycling.
What We Heard
“I am fast approaching the time when I will give up driving my own vehicle. The loss of independence is terrifying, as I will then have to depend on others (and taxis) to drive to destinations I now easily drive to myself.”