Travel Trends
I-84, Fishkill, New York
Knowing how and why people travel is central to helping us shape our transportation system to meet current and future needs. To understand these travel dynamics, we sought to answer two basic questions:
- What are the current trends in our travel behavior (how and why we travel)?
- How do we expect these travel trends to change in the future?
To answer these questions, we reviewed data from a variety of sources to learn about the nature of travel in our county. Below is a summary of those key trends, their implications, and ideas for how we might address them.
Trend 1. Continued preference for personal vehicles
The personal vehicle will remain the preferred mode of transportation in our county for the foreseeable future. Recent estimates show that over 81 percent of all trips in Dutchess County, and 76 percent of work commutes, are made by personal vehicle; rates that have remained largely unchanged since at least 1980. And while our population has declined during the past decade, we have still seen a steady increase in the number of vehicles in the county, with our passenger vehicle inventory growing by five percent (9,500) from 2010-2018. Unless our development patterns and preferences change substantially, transit, walking, and bicycling are unlikely to be feasible for many trips, especially outside our cities, villages, and town centers.
Our preference for personal vehicles will require us to maintain our roads and bridges in a state of good repair, while also striving to make them as safe and efficient as possible. But improving the safety and efficiency of our system not only applies to infrastructure, it also applies to the vehicles that use it. Given that our county will still rely on the personal vehicle for travel, it will become increasingly important for us to promote and expand the use of safer and more energy efficient vehicles (such as connected and electric vehicles). However, a transportation system that caters to vehicles can exclude those without access to one, including older, younger, and lower income residents, and persons with disabilities. We must therefore ensure that their transportation needs are not overlooked.
Our county is home to 218,000 licensed drivers and 219,000 passenger vehicles: a ratio of one vehicle for every driver.
Driver Licenses & Vehicle Registrations in Dutchess County (2010-2018)
Source: NYS Department of Motor Vehicles
Trend 2. More people working from home
Though working from home still remains an exception in Dutchess County, it has been steadily increasing through the decades: from only five percent of workers in 2010 to an estimated 16 percent in 2022. The pandemic clearly accelerated a shift to working from home for those able to do so, double the rate we saw pre-pandemic. We expect this to continue, and perhaps increase slightly, as institutions become more flexible with schedules and workers settle into telecommuting – more so for about a quarter of the county’s workforce who work in sectors that can support working from home (i.e., office-based work). Many workers, notably essential medical, education, construction, and retail workers will not have that flexibility.
A shift to more telecommuting may help ease morning and evening rush hour peaks on major highways and transit systems. However, we will need to watch future long-distance commuting trends, especially among office-based workers, since they tend to work in jobs conducive to telecommuting. This includes those who normally commute to the New York City area by Metro-North Railroad: a permanent shift to telecommuting among this group may lessen demand for commuter rail. But despite the continued growth in telecommuting, a large share of our workforce will commute. Within this commuter population, some will require low cost transportation options to help offset lower wages.
How have Dutchess County's workers commuted to work?
| 2010 | 2015 | 2019 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workers (16 and over) | 137,267 | 136,342 | 147,975 | 148,013 |
| Car-drove alone | 79% | 76% | 75% | 69% |
| Car-carpooled | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| Public transportation | 4% | 6% | 5% | 3% |
| Walked | 4% | 5% | 3% | 3% |
| Worked at home | 5% | 5% | 8% | 16% |
| Mean travel time to work (minutes) | 30.6 | 31.4 | 33.4 | 31.0 |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS)
Trend 3. People will still travel for many reasons, and not only for work
Factors such as where we live, shop, and learn are equally, if not more important than where we work when understanding the nature of travel in our county. Commuting, though much looked at, represents only 13 percent of all trips in Dutchess County. Traveling home, whether from work, shopping, or other purposes, is the main reason why we travel – making up 35 percent of trips in the county (in fact, more people travel to shop than work). And as the reasons we travel vary, so do the distances travelled, and time spent traveling. On average, Dutchess residents travel the farthest so they can earn a living (11 miles) but spend the most time traveling for medical care (38 minutes). Trip dynamics also change by mode: people tend to drive alone when using a vehicle to commute, but have passengers when driving for recreational or social purposes.
For now, we expect these trends to mostly hold true for the foreseeable future, though we may see less commuting due to teleworking, especially for long distance travel by commuter rail, fewer shopping trips due to increased home deliveries, and fewer school trips due to online/distance learning. We still don’t know how these changes will manifest themselves across our county, though one long-term implication might include a lessened need to build out our network to accommodate peak commuter periods.
In Dutchess, average vehicle occupancy drops to 1.2 people when commuting, but rises above 2.0 when driving for social or recreational purposes.
How have we used vehicles to travel in Dutchess County (2009 & 2017)
| 2009 | 2017 | % Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return Home | 35% | 35% | 0% |
| To Work | 13% | 18% | 5% |
| School/Daycare/Religious | 5% | 3% | -2% |
| Medical/Dental | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Shopping/Errands | 23% | 19% | -4% |
| Social/Recreational | 10% | 8% | -2% |
| Transport someone | 8% | 8% | 0% |
| Meals | 6% | 7% | 1% |
| Something else | 3% | 1% | -2% |
Source: 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS)
Trend 4. Growth in ride-hailing services
We expect ride-hailing to continue to grow, as people become more comfortable with the service model and technology. Uber and Lyft began operating in Dutchess County in 2017 and have become increasingly popular travel options for certain demographics and trip purposes. Ride-hailing is often used by college students, young professionals, and tourists, particularly for entertainment and dining-related trips. However, the services remain concentrated in the county’s more populous areas around Beacon and Poughkeepsie.
The growth of ride-hailing services could expand transportation options for older residents, including those who choose to age in place, and others with limited vehicle access (either by choice or necessity). Increased use of ride-hailing could increase traffic in our denser downtowns, but most of these trips will likely occur outside of peak commute hours. Detailed data on ride-hailing is difficult to obtain, but we’ll do our best to monitor its impact on local travel behavior.
Trend 5. Slowing growth in Vehicle Miles Traveled
Overall travel activity in Dutchess County will grow more slowly than previously estimated. Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), a standard measure of overall vehicle use, represents the sum of miles driven by all vehicles in an area. Our previous transportation plan estimated that total county VMT would grow by 19 percent from 2020-2045; however, revised projections for 2021 show growth slowing to about 17 percent by 2045 – primarily due to lower population and employment estimates. And VMT may stay flat or even decline in coming years due to post-pandemic trends: NYSDOT estimates show a seven percent decrease in VMT for Dutchess County from 2019-2021, and excluding 2020, annual VMT still remains lower than at any other point since 2011.
Other impacts to future VMT may stem from changes in land use patterns and the economy, and in the growth of on-demand deliveries, ride-hailing services, and autonomous vehicles. Whatever scale these changes take, our estimate of future VMT implies that we will not need to add highway capacity – i.e., build new roads – but instead focus on making the existing system as efficient as possible. Slowing VMT also presents us with an opportunity to focus on maintaining our roads and bridges, while also benefitting from lower greenhouse gas emissions and improved air quality.
Estimates of Future Vehicle Miles Traveled in Dutchess County
Source: Dutchess County Transportation Council (DCTC)
Our Role
Based on what we’ve learned about these future travel trends, our role could include the following:
- Promote and expand transportation choices for those without access to a vehicle, focusing on public transit, walking and bicycling opportunities, ridesharing services, and even autonomous vehicles.
- Work with ride-hailing companies to help reach older adults, young adults, and others with limited vehicle access, to include those living in rural parts of the county.
- Monitor the impacts of telecommuting on our system, notably for commuter rail operations, and adjust capacity as needed.
- Promote smart land use policies to help reduce vehicle travel and congestion, and support transit, walking, and bicycling.
What We Heard
“I am fast approaching the time when I will give up driving my own vehicle. The loss of independence is terrifying, as I will then have to depend on others (and taxis) to drive to destinations I now easily drive to myself.”