A good transportation system allows all of us to live our lives, earn a living, and pursue our interests. Trends in population directly affect transportation, both in terms of demand and the types of transportation services people need. To better understand what might happen to this demand and what transportation services might be needed in the future, we sought to answer two basic questions:

• What are the trends in the county’s population, including characteristics such as age, race/ethnicity, and income?
• Where in the county do we expect population to grow, decline, or stay the same?

To answer these questions, we reviewed data from a variety of sources to learn how our population may change by 2045. Below is a summary of those key trends, their implications, and ideas on how we might address them.

We can no longer assume population growth rates seen in past decades will continue. Based on available estimates, we expect that the county’s population to hover around 300,000 through 2045—about the same as it is now. This number, the average of upper and lower bound estimates of 318,000 and 286,000 respectively, stands in contrast to our previous plans. Although our county has grown every decade since 1890, current Census estimates for 2019 show a decline from 2010, the first decline in over a century. The reasons for this slow to no growth can be traced to three basic components of population change: births--which are lower, deaths--which are higher, and migration--which is flat (and not enough to offset natural decline).

This trend will affect a range of issues, including travel demand. Without pressure to expand due to population growth, maintaining and managing existing transportation infrastructure and systems will be more important than expansion. We can focus our attention on repairs and making the transportation system as efficient as possible. In some cases, we may be able to adjust transportation facilities to reflect reduced demand or redesign facilities to meet shifting travel needs.

Though we expect the county’s population to stay relatively flat through 2045, there will be variation at the local level. Recent Census estimates show that most of our municipalities lost residents during the past decade, though three– East Fishkill, Fishkill, and Rhinebeck – saw population growth from 2010-2019. When available, the 2020 Census will provide more accurate data on population changes at the local level.

Changes in local population, especially in densities, will impact the demand for and viability of certain transportation services such as transit and ridesharing, and transportation facilities such as sidewalks and trails. We already know that our cities, villages, and town centers benefit from multi-layered transportation systems. Local data from the 2020 Census will show higher-density neighborhoods that have the potential to support new transit service or new or improved walking and biking facilities. Lower-density areas may benefit from new technologies such as autonomous vehicles, which could make rural communities more attractive to residents aging in place and prospective newcomers.

Our economy – whether viewed from the standpoint of employment, household income, or freight activity – determines to a large extent how our transportation system is used. We discuss these issues in detail in our economic trends analysis, but for demographics, we focus on household income. Income provides people with choices, not only in where to live and work, but also in the ways they travel. Higher-income households tend to have more vehicles and are more inclined to travel by car, whereas lower-income households may have limited access to a vehicle and are more likely to travel by transit, particularly bus, and by walking and bicycling.

When adjusted for inflation, county household incomes have remained flat over the past decade. The percent of people living below the poverty level continues to hover around nine percent, with an equal percentage of households receiving food assistance. The Poughkeepsie and Dover areas have the highest share of low-income populations in the county, while the City of Poughkeepsie has the highest share of households without a vehicle available. We expect these conditions to continue or get worse, with about a tenth of our population living under economic stress at any given time. Recognizing this, we will need to ensure that low-cost transportation options remain available to lower-income populations.

Based on what we’ve learned about these future demographic trends, our role could include the following:

• Manage and maintain existing infrastructure, including our roads, bridges, transit systems, sidewalks, and trails, while maximizing their safety and efficiency.
• Consider opportunities to reduce or remove unneeded capacity (also known as ‘right-sizing’ our infrastructure). This may include deferred maintenance on roads or bridges if there are no negative safety or economic impacts.
• Given limited expected growth, reconsider the need to build additional roads or add lanes, and instead, first look at ways to make the existing system more efficient.
• Support and promote transportation options for older adults, in coordination with relevant agencies and organizations such as County Public Transit and the County’s Office for the Aging.
• Protect our most vulnerable populations and communities from bearing negative impacts from our transportation decisions or lack thereof.
• Work to incorporate culturally sensitive practices and policies into our transportation systems and programs.

Whatever changes occur in our county, our challenge will be to find an acceptable balance between competing needs and limited resources. Changes in population, ages, and income will affect travel behavior, as will external influences such as the economy, technology, and climate change.